From The Hotline for Monday, June 23, 2008

FUNDRAISING

Beware The Ides Of May

Mon. Jun 23, 2008


The "fundraising gap" between John McCain and Barack Obama "narrowed" 5/08, as they "raised nearly the same amount of money and ended the month in similar cash positions. For McCain, at $21.8M, "it was one of his best fundraising months," while for Obama, at $21.9M, "it was one of his weaker months."

Obama had $33.3M primary CoH to McCain's $31.6M CoH (Wayne, New York Times, 6/22). Obama had an additional $10M CoH for the general (Cummings, Politico, 6/22).

Colby College prof. Tony Corrado said he believed May "would be Obama's worst month of the campaign," but that donations "have probably flooded" to Obama since he "locked up the nomination." Corrado "expects that Obama will outspend" McCain "by as much as 2 to 1." Corrado: "What we'll see in June is a major surge, and much greater success in fundraising from here on out" (Morain, Los Angeles Times, 6/21).

McCain "has lagged dramatically behind Obama" in fundraising, and "since the campaign began;" Obama has "outraised McCain" $287.5M to $115.3M. But McCain has shown "steady increases" in recent months, while his "fortunes have been helped by" the RNC, which ended May "with 13 times more in the bank than" the DNC, so McCain/RNC leads Obama/DNC $85M to $47M in total CoH. FL "was particularly lucrative for McCain," accounting for $4.1M in donations, while NY, where ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani "has helped McCain," was the source of $3.03M. Accepting the "federal grant" of public financing, McCain will get $84M after the GOP convo "to wage the fall campaign" (Los Angeles Times, 6/21).

McCain's "trend" upwards, however, come largely with the help of "the powerful Republican fundraising machine," which held "three dinners to jointly benefit the party and his campaign, including some fundraisers headed by President Bush," the proceeds of which account for $4.3M of McCain's total" (New York Times, 6/22). In addition, "unlike Barack Obama," McCain "has had to devote a large portion of his campaigning time to old-fashioned luncheons and grips and grins with big donors." According to embedded McCain reporters, the candidate "has attended more than 90 time-consuming fundraisers since" 03/08, even as it "still seems a nearly impossible feat for him to match Obama's record-breaking fundraising prowess" (CBSnews.com, 6/20).

"According to Obama's campaign," the drop in funding "was caused in part by a shift in focus from bringing in big money to homing in on delegates," while "at the same time," Obama was "forced to burn through his cash reserve in the final round" against Hillary Clinton. "Even if" McCain's "surprising parity" has "closed the gap as of now," Obama "could open it back up quickly," with his 06 "fundraising schedule" having been "ratcheted up." Next week Obama "will attend a star-studded fundraising event in Hollywood, while HRC will also "publicly join forces with Obama, sending a signal to her formidable fundraising arm" (Politico, 6/22).

Robbing Hillary To Pay Mark

"Federal filings show" Clinton, "who dropped out of the race" 6/7, "increased her campaign debt in the last month of her primary effort," ending May $22.5M "in debt." The filings also show HRC "lent her campaign" another $2.2M in 5/08, bringing the "total amount she loaned her campaign" to $12.2M, and owes $10.4M to vendors (New York Times, 6/22). "Relatively anemic fundraising" in May, of $12.6M, "didn't go far," as HRC "burned through more than $19M" in the month (Katz, New York Daily News, 6/22). For Dems, "one of the biggest questions" remaining is whether Obama contributors "will now help" HRC "pay off her outstanding debts," as "hard feelings linger" over "the rhetoric from the Clinton campaign."

Among those still owed, for $4.6M, is "controversial" pollster/ex-HRC strategist Mark Penn, "who is not popular in many Democratic circles," making "debt-retirement an even harder sell" (New York Times, 6/22). Baruch College prof. David Birdsell: "It's not going to be in the interest of big Democratic Party donors to allow someone with this kind of prominence (to) carry this kind of debt. There will be people who want to mend fences with her, and one way to maned (them) will be by writing checks" (New York Daily News, 6/22).

His Father Also Had A Strong History Of 'Debt Retirement'

Federal records filed 6/20 also show Giuliani's "failed presidential bid continues to cost him money," as he "dished out" $265K "in PAC funds in recent months to keep his political options open" - including a possible challenge to Gov. David Paterson (D-NY). Records show Giuliani loaned $300K of his own money 5/30 to his campaign "to help pay off" $3M in outstanding debt, "bringing his total personal hit" to $800K "in loans since his campaign ended" 1/31. But the record reveal Giuliani "hasn't stopped thinking about his political future," with his PAC, Solutions America, having "continued to dole out some" $264K "to a loyal cadre of political consultants," in what "could be the foundation for a possible run against" Paterson (Katz/Saltonstall, New York Daily News, 6/20).

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